Victory is not the end; Beyond the triumph at Timbuktu triangle.

By Remmy Hazzan

The Timbuktu Triangle is a term that often feels more mythical than real, used to describe a remote stretch of the Sahara around Timbuktu. It’s a place where tales of lost travelers, mysterious disappearances, and strange dangers abound.

Unlike the infamous Bermuda Triangle, this concept lacks any scientific or maritime foundation. Its allure comes from the area’s isolation, the harsh desert environment, and its long-standing reputation as a mysterious frontier of the known world.

Geographically speaking, the Timbuktu Triangle loosely encompasses parts of northern Mali, stretching toward Niger and Burkina Faso, deep in the Sahara Desert. Historically, this region was a vital part of trans-Saharan trade routes that connected West Africa with North Africa and the Middle East.

Caravans traversing this harsh landscape faced extreme heat, fierce sandstorms, bandit attacks, and tricky navigation. Many of the so-called “disappearances” attributed to mystery were actually the result of dehydration, disorientation, or conflict, very real threats in such a relentless environment.

In today’s context, the term “Timbuktu Triangle” is often used more metaphorically than literally. It can describe lawless areas, communication black holes, or places where people or resources seem to vanish due to neglect, insecurity, or poor governance.

In essence, it’s less about supernatural mysteries and more about a poetic label shaped by geography, history, and human imagination, where intrigue flourishes in the absence of certainty.

In the context of the ongoing insurgency in northeastern Nigeria, the term “Timbuktu Triangle” is commonly used by local military personnel and analysts to refer to a *troublesome, hard-to-manage area in Borno State.

This is where factions of the Islamic State – West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram have long found refuge, regrouping and launching attacks. Interestingly, it has no connection to the historic city of Timbuktu in Mali; instead, it specifically points to this precarious security zone in Nigeria’s northeast.

The Timbuktu Triangle outlines a rough triangular stretch of land that extends from Maiduguri northwest toward Den Kalwa/Benisheikh in Borno, then southwest around Dambam, before curving back to Maiduguri, effectively forming a triangle on the map.

This region suffers from weak state governance, features vast bush and scrubland, and has porous routes that militants have taken advantage of. It’s recognized as one of the main insurgent strongholds, alongside the Sambisa Forest, Mandara Mountains, and parts of the Lake Chad area.

Since the Boko Haram insurgency kicked off in 2009, this region has turned into a battleground between Nigerian forces and Islamist militants. Both ISWAP and Boko Haram factions have utilized the Timbuktu Triangle as a hideout, training ground, logistics center, and launchpad for attacks on military and civilian targets.

Nigerian military operations, including initiatives like Operation Hadin Kai and others launched in recent years, have intermittently cleared out militants, destroying camps and taking out insurgents. However, these groups often manage to re-enter the area due to the challenging terrain and lack of governance.

For instance, operations in late January 2025 reportedly led to the deaths of dozens of insurgents and the neutralization of several commanders during clashes within the Triangle, although the fighting persists. This area is a prime example of what security analysts refer to as an ungoverned or under-governed space, where a minimal state presence allows violent groups to flourish.

These spaces become reservoirs of violence, recruiting grounds, and sources of instability that affect civilian safety, displacement, and regional security. In northeastern Nigeria’s case, the Timbuktu Triangle’s existence highlights the enduring challenge of fully re-establishing government authority in areas long contested by insurgents.

As recently as days ago, the Nigerian Armed Forces having been actively engaged via Operation Hadin Kai, in a long-standing counter-insurgency effort in northeastern Nigeria started ramping up coordinated offensives in the Timbuktu Triangle, focusing on key insurgent strongholds and logistics centers.

During operations in areas like Chilaria, Garin Faruk, and Abirma, troops stumbled upon a significant underground storage facility used by Boko Haram, which contained fuel, medical supplies, and other military equipment that had been hidden away by the militants. This discovery represents a major blow to their supply lines.

Additionally, the Nigerian Military have been actively dismantling terrorist networks, stopping attempts involving vehicle-borne IEDs, and engaging in intense combat with fleeing insurgents throughout the region. Official military statements highlight these achievements as part of a broader campaign aimed at weakening terrorist strongholds and reclaiming territorial control.

Despite the military’s reported operational progress, the situation remains violent and contested. Recently, Boko Haram has launched attacks on Nigerian military positions in Borno State, leading to casualties and injuries among soldiers. This underscores that militants are still capable of executing coordinated strikes, even under pressure from offensive operations.

Engagements with militants fleeing cleared areas have resulted in further casualties for both insurgent fighters and Nigerian forces, serving as a stark reminder of the high human cost and ongoing risks involved in operations within this entrenched insurgent landscape.

Officials from Operation Hadin Kai have recognized the intelligence support from international partners, including the United States, which helps in tracking, disrupting, and neutralizing insurgent elements in the Borno region.

This collaboration aims to enhance the effectiveness of Nigerian forces against groups like ISWAP and Boko Haram. In summary, while Nigerian troops are reporting operational breakthroughs and territorial gains in the Timbuktu Triangle, the insurgency is far from being eradicated, and both sides continue to clash. The situation reflects a blend of tactical successes and persistent security challenges in a region that has long been exploited by militant groups.

To really change the story around the Timbuktu Triangle, and stop it from becoming a hub for terrorist activities again, Nigeria needs to think beyond just winning battles. Sure, tactical victories, like the recent successes of the Nigerian Armed Forces, are important, but they’re not enough on their own. What comes next has to be intentional, layered, and long-lasting. Below are suggested ways forward.

1. From “clearing operations” to lasting control

The military needs to move from sporadic offensives to a strategy of ongoing area control. If troops pull out too quickly, ungoverned spaces will pop back up. The Timbuktu Triangle should become a no-go zone, equipped with forward operating bases, mobile patrols, aerial surveillance, and rapid-response teams that make it tough and unappealing for groups like ISWAP and Boko Haram to re-enter. The goal isn’t just to defeat insurgents; it’s to make them constantly aware that they’ll be detected.

2. Logistics warfare: cut off the insurgency’s supplies

Terrorist groups rely more on their supply chains than on ideology; things like fuel, food, medicine, tax routes, and black-market trade. The military should ramp up efforts focused on logistics warfare:

• Identify and dismantle fuel routes, arms corridors, and taxation networks for cattle and rice
• Pursue financiers, couriers, and collaborators with the same intensity as the armed fighters
• Combine financial intelligence, customs enforcement, and border surveillance

When insurgents can’t refuel, resupply, or move around freely, the territory loses its value for them.

3. Civil-military consolidation: security must be followed by governance

Once a terrorist stronghold is cleared, it’s crucial to bring in civil authority right away; think local administration, police, humanitarian groups, schools, and markets. History has shown us that when soldiers pull out and governance doesn’t step in, insurgents often come back, claiming to restore “order.” So, military operations like Operation Hadin Kai need to be closely aligned with:

• Quick rebuilding of roads and communication networks
• Community policing and integrating vetted local vigilantes
• Protecting civilians to help rebuild trust and improve intelligence sharing

If security doesn’t lead to a better daily life, it’s only a temporary fix.

4. Intelligence dominance over firepower

The battles of the future will rely less on bullets and more on having the upper hand in information. To achieve lasting success, we need:

• Strong human intelligence networks (including repentant fighters, locals, and defectors)
• Ongoing ISR (drones, signals intelligence, and terrain monitoring)
• Predictive operations that can disrupt attacks before they even happen

Insurgents should always feel like they’re being watched, even if no soldiers are in sight.

5. Regional and psychological closure

Lastly, Nigeria needs to cut off terrorists from any strategic advantage. This means working closely with neighboring countries around Lake Chad, maintaining strict border control, and crafting a powerful counter-narrative that sends a clear message: there are no safe havens left. Publicly showcasing victories while quietly holding the ground helps dismantle the myth of insurgent invincibility that drives recruitment.

Bottom line

The Timbuktu Triangle should become a case study in irreversible recovery, not a recurring headline. The military has shown it can win battles. The task now is to win time, territory, trust, and memory, so that these spaces are no longer remembered as terrorist strongholds, but as places reclaimed and held, permanently.

ESV Rt Hon Remmy Hazzan, PhD, FNIVS is a public analyst. He writes from Yenagoa, Bayelsa State

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