Not Again: Coup Rumours and Realities in Nigeria’s Fragile Democracy

By Professor Ojo Emmanuel Ademola

Nigeria’s democratic path has weathered storms of military coups and lingering whispers of upheaval. From the brutal rupture of 1966 to the unsettling allegations of 2025, these shadows have scarred governance and shaken public trust. Yet, the resounding cry—“Not Again”—is no mere lament. It is a bold declaration of national resolve to defend democracy, restore confidence, and forge a future free from the grip of instability.

A Survey of Nigeria’s Military Coups

Between 1966 and 1997, Nigeria endured nine major coups and several failed attempts—each fuelled by ethnic tensions, corruption, political instability, and military ambition. These upheavals reshaped the nation’s leadership and left lasting scars on its democratic aspirations.

Between 1966 and 1997, Nigeria endured a turbulent era marked by a series of coups that reshaped its political landscape. The first, led by Major Kaduna Nzeogwu in January 1966, aimed to end corruption but instead unleashed ethnic violence and national division. A retaliatory coup followed in July, resulting in the assassination of General Aguiyi-Ironsi and deepening regional tensions. In 1975, General Gowon was deposed in a bloodless takeover while abroad, only for his successor, General Murtala Muhammed, to be assassinated in a failed 1976 coup led by Lt. Col. Bukar Dimka.

The 1983 coup saw Major General Muhammadu Buhari oust President Shagari over corruption allegations, but he too was overthrown in 1985 by General Ibrahim Babangida, who promised reform. In 1990, Major Gideon Orkar’s failed attempt to excise northern states exposed the country’s deep-seated divisions. Three years later, General Sani Abacha seized power after the annulled June 12 elections, ushering in a repressive regime. In 1997, Abacha accused his deputy, General Oladipo Diya, of plotting a coup—an allegation that led to death sentences later overturned following Abacha’s sudden death. These events underscore a volatile chapter in Nigeria’s history, where military ambition repeatedly disrupted democratic aspirations.

These events underscore Nigeria’s hard-won journey toward democratic resilience. Each coup left a mark—but the nation’s resolve to rise above military rule remains unshaken.

Coup Rumours in the Fourth Republic

Since the restoration of civilian rule in 1999, Nigeria has sustained 26 years of uninterrupted democratic governance—a remarkable feat in a region often marred by instability. Yet, the spectre of military interference continues to loom. In October 2025, alarming reports surfaced alleging that sixteen military officers, including a Brigadier General, had been detained for plotting to overthrow President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Although the Defence Headquarters swiftly dismissed the claims as mere disciplinary infractions, the timing and gravity of the allegations ignited widespread concern.

The public response was swift and resolute. Civil society organisations, constitutional experts, and retired military leaders united in their condemnation of the rumours, reaffirming the inviolability of Nigeria’s democratic order. Their voices echoed a national consensus: the era of military rule must remain buried in history, and the sanctity of civilian leadership must be fiercely protected.

Politically, the fallout was immediate and symbolic. The cancellation of the Independence Day parade—a cornerstone of national pride—sent shockwaves through the public, fuelling speculation and unease. In its wake, a sweeping military reshuffle was announced, with over sixty generals slated for retirement. This decisive move signalled a clear intent: to reinforce loyalty, restore public confidence, and fortify the democratic architecture against any internal subversion.

Nigeria’s democracy is no longer on the defensive—it is standing tall with bold resolve. Coup rumours may stir anxiety, but they will not shake the nation’s commitment to constitutional order. Citizens, institutions, and leaders are united in declaring that the will of the people shall never again be subverted by force. Strategic reforms, public vigilance, and regional leadership are reinforcing Nigeria’s democratic backbone. The message is clear and uncompromising: democracy is Nigeria’s future, and it will be defended with clarity, conviction, and collective strength.

Thought Processes Behind Coups and Rumours

Coup rumours in Nigeria often stem from military frustration over stalled promotions, corruption, and favouritism—grievances that quietly ferment into destabilising ambitions. Economic hardship intensifies the threat, as inflation, unemployment, and insecurity erode public trust and fuel discontent. In such climates, the old rhetoric of “saving the nation” resurfaces, echoing past coups like that of 1983, where patriotism masked a power grab.

Foreign interests further complicate matters, with global powers historically meddling in African democracies under diplomatic pretence. These internal fractures and external pressures pose a real danger to Nigeria’s democratic integrity. To safeguard the republic, institutions must be fortified, grievances addressed, and unconstitutional narratives rejected outright. Democracy is not a luxury—it is a national imperative. It must be defended with clarity, courage, and collective resolve.

Impact on Nigeria’s Democracy

Even when unverified, coup rumours are far from harmless—they strike at the core of national stability and corrode public trust. Institutions once seen as pillars of democracy become suspect, and the credibility of governance begins to fracture. The social contract between the state and its citizens—anchored in transparency and constitutional order—faces dangerous strain.

Confidence in leadership falters. Citizens question the legitimacy of decisions, the integrity of those in power, and the resilience of democratic structures. The ripple effect is profound: uncertainty breeds fear, and fear weakens national resolve.

These rumours do not merely disrupt protocol—they disturb the soul of the nation. The cancellation of symbolic events like the Independence Day parade is not a logistical shift; it is a psychological rupture. Such moments are meant to unify and reaffirm identity. Their absence signals vulnerability and invites speculation.

In this climate, anxiety deepens and the national rhythm stumbles. But Nigeria must not be swayed by shadows. The strength of democracy lies not in the absence of threats, but in the courage to confront them. Institutions must be fortified, leadership must be transparent, and citizens must rally to defend the republic with unwavering resolve.

Politically, the fallout often manifests in heightened militarisation. Strategic reshuffles, though framed as reform, increasingly resemble regime protection. This blurring of lines between civilian authority and military influence threatens the balance of democratic governance.

Regionally, Nigeria’s leadership within ECOWAS is tested as neighbouring states fall to juntas. Each coup abroad casts a shadow at home, challenging Nigeria’s credibility as a stabilising force.

The message must be firm, fearless, and final: Nigeria will not entertain threats to its sovereignty, nor permit the ghosts of past instability to shape its destiny. Democracy is not negotiable—it is the foundation of national progress, unity, and justice. It must be upheld with unwavering clarity, bold conviction, and the full strength of a united people.

Conclusion: “Not Again” Must Be a National Resolve

“Not Again” must rise beyond mere sentiment—it must be etched into Nigeria’s national conscience as a doctrine of democratic defence. In a nation still healing from the scars of military rule, democracy, though imperfect, stands as the most credible path to inclusive governance, accountability, and lasting peace.

The military must remain unwavering in its allegiance to the Constitution, not to personalities or ambitions. Its role is to protect the republic, not to preside over it. Equally, citizens must reject the dangerous allure of authoritarian nostalgia. The past may tempt with promises of order, but it delivered repression, division, and fear.

Democracy is not self-sustaining—it demands vigilance, sacrifice, and unity. It is forever, but only if Nigerians, together and without compromise, choose to defend it at every turn.

Ojo Emmanuel Ademola is Africa’s First Professor of Cybersecurity and Information Technology Management, Chartered Manager, UK Digital Journalist, Strategic Advisor and Prophetic Mobiliser for National Transformation, and General Evangelist of CAC Nigeria and Overseas. He is a columnist with Penpushing Media

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